Math for player kill lore challenges

This is important to know, gearbox or player. there are 25, now 26, but 25 is easier for math reasons, battleborn. For lore challenges that require, say that you kill ambra 25 times, you have to kill 1 of those 25 battleborn 25 times.

You cannot see what the other team picks for characters.

You have to hope that theey pick the one you need.

You have to then be better than them.

You need this to occur 25 times.

For ambra, you have a 1/25 chance of one player picking her, that chance becomes 5 in 25 because 5 battleborn on the other team must be chosen. theoretically, you have a 20% chance the other team will have the character you are trying to kill. Sounds pretty sweet number wise right? no. Battleborn are unlocked, so not everyone has Ambra. Additionally, the starter battleborn are played more because people who started by playing them stuck with those innitial characters, especially with characters like rath. Other characters are tiered. Galilea, even though she isn’t all that overpowered anymore, is played very often. Toby, who is basically a less mobile, larger version of marquis with no useful ultimate, is used much, much less. although tiers change with buffs and nerfs they do influence these situations. Then you have difficulty. Slightly different, this is how easy it is to play the character. Oscar mike and benedict are both pushers, but it you see more oscar mikes because (of the previous reasons and) his complexity. He is fairly simple. Grenade, shoot, stealth when health is low. Or stealth behind people, grenade, shoot. I mean, he can be more complicated to an extent, and he still takes skill to play, but he’s easier to understand and learn. Benedict has to manage the same damage with less health, slower projectiles, and a longer reload/ worsee dps, but, due to a mixture of helix upgrades, use of the z axis and well placed shots/his hawkeye, he can definitely come out on top over oscar mike. It’s simply a lot of players see him as not as good. Though sometimes, like with toby, this “complexity” is at the moment just not as good in as many situations as all other people who play like him, usually, this is different from tiers.

Finally, and probably the biggest point, is visuals. A lot of people I think don’t want to play an extremely pale, pointy chinned, tall toothpick or an icy, crystal giant maw, or a big grey guy with a rectangle on his chin when they could play the sleek caldarius, or the badass looking mushroom, or the soldier looking soldier. Thier appearance is fine, but it can be offputing, some people don’t think the character looks as interesting if they look bulky and without personality (both ambra and kelvin appearance wise don’t appear to have much of a personality, though I’m aware they actually do)

This extremely long explanation is why you aren’t getting ambra kills, or playing with kelvin or boldur as much as 20% of the time (for peopel on your team, it’s lower than 20% mathematically since there’s only 4 peoplee who can choose someone for you to play with, rather than 5), and instead getting a lot of the starter characters and cool guys like caldarius and powerful characters like ghalt. This is also why it’s frustrating for so many people. Don’t even get me started on some of the other ones, like Toby’s double kills.

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I like that you used math to explain why the lore challenges are… Obnoxious. And you mentioned Toby :slight_smile: I saw someone who got Toby lore. One person. Ever.


I am posting on every thread that mentions Toby’s “killing on rails” lore challenge being to hard, in the hopes that Gearbox will see and fix it. As they’ve already proven with Galilea, Ambra, ISIC, and most likely soon-to-be Alani, the “squeaky wheel gets the oil.” GEARBOX, i’m not going to lie and say that your failure to fix this will result in me getting rid of Battleborn, but can i PLEASE get a reasonable chance at mastering my favorite character?!

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Just to sum up (and see if I understand you correctly), here are some more numbers:

  • Current roster: 26 characters (n=26)

  • (Maximum) Party Size: 5 (k=5)

  • This equals n over k possible party combinations. (65780)

If you take into account, that you’re trying to complete a specific challenge, one of these characters becomes locked. Leading to:

  • n=25
  • k=4
  • n over k = 12650

That leaves 19,23% of all possible party setups.

Please correct me, if I’m wrong on any of this. :wink:

The real problem, when it comes to kill challenges (Like ‘Kill character x 25 times’) is that math like this only works under the assumption, that each pick is equally likely to happen (Laplace condition).

And since there are always characters, that are more popular than others, one would need a detailed statistic on play rates for each of them (from all platforms) to precisely calculate the odds of running into a certain character in PvP.

As for the PvE challenges (‘Play with character x 5 times’), I find it more reliable to actually trust in some human decency over random chance. I had a couple of missions until now, where players would wait for the first picks and select their own characters according to the lore challenges.


This doesn’t even factor in that players are undoubtedly picking Ambra even less frequently now because she was nerfed a couple times and they’re afraid of/don’t feel like dealing with being hunted by people out for lore challenges. Even if I was a PVP player I’d never pick Ambra outside of PVE or private bot matches, that’s for sure. Or any other character that somebody’s got to kill x number of times, either, for that matter.

Thus, I suspect the odds of running into an enemy Ambra are abysmal now, though only Gearbox could put hard numbers to it.

I was actually thinking about using this towards a strategic advantage, I mean Ambra should make a great bait at the moment :smile:

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It works. I did the same thing on the day of the nerf to annoy some Alani’s, and an ambra did the same to me :stuck_out_tongue:

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Ambra is SO OFFENDED that you said that about her in the second-from-last paragraph. XD

Don’t you mean Miffed?

I also… <.< Don’t have my shirt… Tucked. In. :sunglasses:

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make 2 pre made teams…

Try hitting a few more jump pads and you’ll get the ‘offended’ line. :smiley:

Also I ■■■■■■■ love the ‘every shirt on this planet’ one. XD

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I hate the way Ambra looks, but when I was playing as her I adored all her lines, and this one almost made me gush Orange Crush out of my nose.

Thank you for stating this more clearly instead of mainly explaining why roughly 20% is an innacurate number and it is a much lower chance to even be able to face the enemy battleborn.

I think that’s the problem too. She’s not as solemnly boring as she looks, just like kelvin isn’t as both thick and hollow headed as he looks (love his voice and lines like “The Ice Man cometh. Right. Up top.” It’s just so funny how he doesn’t display emotion correctly and basically just speaks without it, and yet it makes him so much fun to listen to) but they get less play than they should. I mean, kelvin isn’t great for incusion beecause of how big he is, but he rocks in capture and is pretty good in meltdown too.

Couldn’t agree more, @chaosolis, the lore challenges really need a looking at. Not only do they make PvP toxic (as discussed elsewhere), but even when not considering that they just unforrtunately aren’t at all fun.

They’re a slog, a grind, a mind-numbing tread through numbers, numbers, numbers. And that’s really saddening because it’s one of the few things I believe is dragging this game down. The sooner Gearbox really have a good sit down and look at this, and figure out how to just overhaul the entire system? The better.

This (along with linked PvE/PvP balancing, and ham-fisted nerfs) are my primary concerns in regards to community killers.

I mean, the community doesn’t need to grow much for the game to continue to be healthy, but if they’re not careful, they’re going to start losing the people they do have in droves. Frankly, that’d be bloody unfortunate as I love this game.

No insult to Gearbox or anything, but the handling of this does irk me a little bit. If they would just take on board what people are saying, the game’s community would be healthier, I think.


It’s only been a few weeks, I’m sure some of this will be sorted out, though some we’ll have to live with. The “play with so and so” is better than the kills because you can get a teammate(s) to help you. They’ve been fairly on top of the game, doing patches every week, and gearbox is still new to the “constantly update the game” thing.

I was pleased to see people choose Marquis when I was Phoebe, or Miko when I was Kelvin and made that part of the lore far easier. Still waiting for an all Eldrid squad (Boldur lore) but can’t complain.

I do object to the idea that less people would like Ambra or Kelvin than Caldarius or Oscar Mike… to me they have a lot more personality and appeal than cookie cutter shooter characters. I think it has more to do with play style - Ambra and Kelvin are very complex compared to those two, in terms of ult placement, timing and base attacks at least. Caldarius is complex as well but the abilities are easier to use somewhat effectively IMO.

I object too, Ambra looks like… Well. A flaming bdsm nun. Pretty badass imo. Kelvin’s just purty :stuck_out_tongue: and yeah, their skill level is a bit higher than most.

Guys let’s stay on topic here. It has nothing got to do with Character looks. It’s the lore challenge.

I do agree it’s so freakin nuts. 25 ambra kills. Unless u go 1v1 with an Ambra user then this challenge is definitely a tad leaning to insane