Vault Hunting 101: A Guide to RNG and LOOT!

Good read. Do you know of any data collected on Hyperius drops? More specifically on the 360? I have been grinding for a Norfleet for a very long time, in excess of 250 runs. I’ve finally gotten fruatrated enough to document my runs in attemt to prove that either Gearbox accidentally nerfed it on 360, or my game is bugged.

So far I am 37 runs in.

I don’t have time to look right now, but I’ll search through the drop rates survey archive data for you later today.

But do we have data on them post-buff, aside from mine? My data, after some talks with a certain someone, suggests that the hotfix/patch actually generalized loot pools, possibly an unintentional side effect, as I got far more Norfleets in 700 Normal mode kills (14 to be precise) than the old rate would suggest, even when tripled.

I would gather some Xbox 360 data myself but I am having trouble redownloading the Season Pass content >.<

Ouch, sorry to hear that.

I am gathering data for 360 in UVHM OP8 right now.

Before gathering data I uninstalled and reinstalled the game, to hopefully eliminate any glitchiness associated with my loaded game. I am performing my tests with a mule present, without any Vault Hunter relics.

So far I have 80 runs (documented, I am discounting all the previous runs as they are undocumented), no Norfleet yet.

No, but we should be able to compare rates of Norfleet versus anything else. The drop rate should not (assuming the buffs worked the way I think they were intended) be worse than it was.

@kgk4569’s overall numbers, while still a very small sample, are consistent with a legendary rate of 1 in 10, but that one obviously can then be one of a large number of items. Did you track total legendaries over those 700 runs, or just Norfleets?

Yeah, a lot of folks seem to have been bitten by that bug. Did you try re-downloading through your purchase history?

I have 110 runs documented now. Norfleet dropped on 105. Sometime this week I’ll put my runs in spreadsheet form.

Sledge’s shotgun was the overwhelming winner of drop %.

Looking through the original survey data (pre-buff), this is what I see:

  • Hyperius:
    • 22 legendaries in 830 runs = 2.65% observed drop rate (nature of legendary not specified)

There doesn’t appear to be an entry for Vermivorous, unless I’m missing something?

I tracked absolutely everything (important) as detailed as I could. Overall I got 73 Legendaries, 75 if we include the Pyrophobia. I make this differentiation because it seems to drop FAR less than everything else, suggesting it’s not in that pool.
Overall we have 10 Kisses of Death, 14 Norfleets as mentioned, 17 Hornets, 13 Sledge’s, 11 WTFs and 8 Shredifiers. Thus, 73 Legendaries (since the KoD clearly counts. Unfortunately) or 10.43%, pretty close to the expected drop rate.

Like I mentioned earlier, the Pyrophobia simply doesn’t seem to work into this as is rather clear by these numbers. Therefore, my assumption is that Hyperius has 6 drops in that pool, leading to a realistic drop rate of 1.6667% of any of these drops, most specifically the Norfleet.
I tracked the occasional Seraph drops as well but they are too rare in Normal and aren’t what we are aiming for anyway.

As a matter of fact, I haven’t. Although it seems like that may no longer be necessary.

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The original survey data did NOT track uniques though, so to do a direct comparison you’d need to take those out. Which gives us… 9%, or roughtly 3x the old data rate. Close enough in my book for >1K trials, anyway.

Yeah, they could just be world drops from one of the however many world loot pool rolls. It does make me wonder about the Norfleet though - does it just take a larger portion of the possible outcomes for any legendary, or is there one roll that’s specifically for the Norfleet? My hunch would be the former, since that sits better with “increased chance” than the latter, but the latter approach would be more consistent with the way the mini-bosses (Lee, Boll, etc.) work.

Not anymore. I got (without looking at my numbers) 3 or 4 Pyrophobias, that is more than WTFs, Hornets, and the Norfleet combined.

My data so far has Pyrophobia and Norfleet inverted from what you saw.

True, things were different back then.

My guess is that the Norfleet in this case is “just another” drop from his pool. No bias or anything.

Well, I am confused now. This seems to extreme of a change for simple cases of bad/good luck.

I’m honestly not that surprised. The counts for individual items are so small that we’d really need a whack more runs to break it out with any degree of confidence. It still yields about the right increment over all (within the confidence interval for the sample size and expected drop rate).

Not really. I’ve seen similar variations for other drops. Really, the only way to get a clear picture is to aggregate data over many, many more runs than any sane individual would be prepared to engage in.

I agree, that is why I started collecting data. After doing over 200 runs and seeing no Norfleet I began to suspect my game was glitched or the rates changed. I reinstalled the game and patches, so that is (most likely) out.

I must admit that until yesterday I had never laid hands on a Pyrophobia.

Well, if you say so. You have more data and information than me on this matter after all.

Still, this feels so alien. Recently I’ve been hunting Hyperius on UVHM as well and got 6 Norfleets over several hundred kills but still 0 Pyrophobias and many of the other drops as well. I didn’t count precisely as I was focusing only on getting a Fire Norfleet, not data.

I still haven’t gotten that Fire Norfleet.

I’ve gotten a couple of them. They can drop from Incinerator Clayton, but I suspect not too many people farm him unless they are doing the whole Frostburn tubby/LLM/Scorch/Spycho run anyway. I’ve got one from Clayton, and one from LLMs in the WEP box room.

Never found one from LLMs either. I farmed them A LOT back before the patch. I came out dripping in Emporers though.

LLMs don’t seem as rewarding as they used to be. Once I finish Hyperius data I may target them next.

I’ll tell you who has been good to me lately. Black Queen. I’ve gotten a lot of Nukems.

Norfleet drop could be parallel and share the same pool as other assigned legendaries (and maybe some Seraphs too, besides the guaranteed one). That is one possibility why Norfleet is hard to get, just like Vermi and its Legendary COMs + head/skin customs beside Norfleet.

I believe LLM was patched because people found an exploit in WEP, and also the (very) high rate in Sawtooth Cauldron. I enjoyed the (almost) guaranteed legendaries and pearls when I had no DLC back then for quite a short time.

It is possible. I did only see 1 Hornet the entire 110 runs so far.

Only Hornet? How about other legendaries/out of pool Seraphs from him?

110 Runs:
Sledge’s Shotgun - 5 (4.5%)
Pyrophobia - 3 (2.7%)
Shredifier - 2 (1.8%)
WTF - 1 (0.9%)
Hornet - 1 (0.9%)
Norfleet - 1 (0.9%)
Kiss of Death - 1 (0.9%)

OVERALL - 14 (12.7%)

No out of pool Seraphs.