# What did you do in BL2 during your most recent session?

If you’ve got the Crawmerax Headhunter pack, Sparky may be a faster option, even with Deception.

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It is. The run is wide open with Deception, and far shorter than the run to Flint.

My math was really bad in this post, although somehow not too off from the actual value If they each have a 10% chance to drop, then the actual chance overall for at least one to drop is 0.10.90.90.94 + 0.10.10.90.96 + 0.10.10.10.94 + 0.10.10.10.1 = 1 - 0.90.90.90.9 = 0.3439, so ~34%. Regardless, my point still stands, it certainly doesn’t feel like 34% XD

Tried 3 more times last night, died to different things each time. First two were in the first two locations (both times to random trash mobs, I didn’t even make it to dual scorch.) because I wasn’t being careful, last one was to the assassins again. Being this close and constantly being thwarted is frustrating, but I’m determined to figure this out XD

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Wot?! That doesn’t make any sense…

The drop chances are independent per run and per rat, so a single run at all four is in theory four rolls at 1 in 10 odds. I do have some data on the Rats drop rates, although it’s not that extensive. Over 20 runs, I got a total of 2 Storm Fronts, both rubberized - not really very successful! I had a quick look in the Drop Rates Survey spread sheet, but I don’t see an entry for these guys.

I do worry about stuff glitching into the floor and walls in that chamber though - I suspect the best way to get decent stats is to farm with Maya so she can phaselock the dudes and you can see what drops more clearly. Either that, or we’re both really unlucky there.

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Heh, yeah I didn’t explain the math at all You are correct that each run is four independent rolls of 10%, but the way to calculate the overall probability of at least one drop happening isn’t just multiplying 10% by 4. The simple version is the “1 - 0.9^4”, which states that the probability of at least one dropping is equal to one minus the probability of none of them dropping. So say they still had the ~3.3% drop rate instead of the 10% drop rate, it would be 1 - 0.967^4 ~= 0.126 = 12.6%.

The longer method is summing up the probabilities of all the different possibilities of a drop, so the 0.10.9^34 is the probability of exactly one dropping, while 0.1^20.9^26 is the probability of two dropping, and so on. I forgot the exact probability terminology, but you can only sum probabilities for distinct events, so that if one happens none of the others can happen. This is why I separated it into 1 drop, 2 drops, 3 drops, and 4 drops categories, then summed them. It’s way easier to just take the inverse of the no drop probability, like in the 1 - 0.9^4 case.

I could still be wrong, this is working off of what I remember from my probability class last year.

Oh I know that, I just couldn’t figure out what you were doing with your calculation - it’s kind of messy!

Edit: Anyway, between us we have 2 Storm Fronts in 4 * (20 + 20) = 160 Rat killings. Those are not good results!

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Teacher VH101 disapproves.

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Vora…

You know what he drops?

HAWKEYES.

HAWKEYE HAWKEYE HAWKEYE HAWKEYE HAWKEYE!!!

Aaaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrggggghhhhhhhh!!!

AGAIN?!

*^%#}<£¥€!!!

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Yeah, my bad there, I just copy pasted the formula I put in my calculator XD

I try my best not to post the classic “X is glitched, rage!” But this time specifically it felt a lot lower than it should just because there’s 4 of them. shrug It’s just confirmation bias (last run I didn’t get anything, this run I didn’t get anything, the game is broken!), but I felt like calculating out the actual probability anyway.

Also I haven’t been counting, I’m pretty sure I did about 20 runs, but I have no idea how many it actually was.

Back to farming!

The thing I’ve noticed is that it always seems like more runs than it actually is. I’ve often been surprised while logging runs to see just how few I’ve completed when I actually total them up. I do wonder about the Rats specifically though - I’ve gotten more consistent results with the four Assassins than these guys.

Very true. I’ve started counting now, so I’ll let you know how the next 20 go

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Just started UVHM with my first xbone Axton.
Most of the way towards getting him a grog nozzle and it seems that the bloody orcs dont want me to get there.
I got knocked off the cliff 5 times , and then my missus ‘accidentally’ triggers the cart and mows me down.

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Took a much needed break from running Sparx through the Tiny Tina DLC and went to torture some midgets. I skulked around a few maps, scoping out a few spots for various reasons. ( ) Then I resumed farming the midget some more. Nothing got dropped…

Went back to the Tiny Tina DLC for a couple rounds before taking my first break. I’m determined to find that class mod today!

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it’s the ONLY piece of gear I’ve yet to get in this game- and you get them like candy…

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This is the second time I’ve pulled 8 straight from Vora. It’s ridiculous. Gave up on that for the day. Still dreaming of pulling an incendiary or corrosive Practicable Interfacer.

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I use a slightly different setup now, but this is one way to do it:

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Finally settling down to UVHM Thoughtlock Maya and I realised I only have 1 character at 72 - the MEAT MAN!

I have the others in various states (54 and down actually) with Axton the lowest at 33! Someone pick my character for tonight and I’ll try to bring them all up to 72 by the end of the month perhaps?

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Very nice! I’m playing as Maya however…one day I’ll figure something out that works well for me!

I did 40 runs of the rats at OP7, got 4 Storm Fronts.

12: OP7 homing 0.0 from Lee (first rat)
18: OP5 longbow 1.4 from Dan (second rat)
32: OP7 longbow 0.7 from Lee (first rat), OP7 rubberized 0.1 from Dan (second rat)

Overall it’s looking like it might be 1/10 per run rather than per rat, but this is nowhere near enough data to actually conclude that, it’s just an early hunch. At least now I can conclusively say that my first set of runs was probably at most 15, not 20.

I’m going to try the longbow 0.7 one and see how well that works. Also might go get a Grog first instead of a Rubi, just for the insane healing.

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It’s possible, but in no way easy.

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